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Regulating the Military Application of Emerging Technologies: Recent Trends Key Issues and Implications

Regulating the Military Application of Emerging Technologies: Recent Trends Key Issues and Implications

Regulating the Military Application of Emerging Technologies: Recent Trends Key Issues and Implications

Ⅰ.Background
Ⅱ. Key Issues 
Ⅲ. Outlook and Implications 


Ⅰ.Background

With the rapid advancement of emerging technologies\ the international community has grown increasingly interested in how emerging technologies affect military security. The widespread application of emerging technologies driving the Fourth Industrial Revolution has placed more importance on the using the technologies in the field of military security as well as on unlocking their commercial value. As increasing military application of emerging technologies is necessitating response at the national level\ formulating national strategies and policies on emerging technologies is becoming a vital issue for many countries around the world. In the past\ there was a certain time gap between the development of technologies and their application in the military realm; but in recent years\ these time gaps have been significantly reduced. In particular\ the convergence of technologies and the advent of sophisticated technologies such as IoT\ artificial intelligence\ and cloud computing are opening up new avenues for the application of emerging technologies in a military context.
  
It is against this backdrop that discussions on establishing the laws and norms regulating the military application of emerging technologies surfaced across many parts of the world.  However\ countries remain sharply divided over how to regulate the application of emerging technologies in a military context\ especially at a time when competing blocs holding divergent views on this matter. The patterns as well as the degree of dissonance vary depending on the technology. For instance\ in the case of cyberspace and space\ the western blod led by the U.S. and the bloc led by China and Russia are sharply divided\ while technologically advanced nations and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) offer starkly divergent views on the use of AI in a military context. Countries and blocs are especially divided on issues like specific international laws and norms applicable to emerging technologies; whether to create legally binding international laws; supply chain and export control for regulating military applications; and the establishment of a new  consultative body.
  
It should be noted that discussions on creating a consultative body related to the military use of emerging technologies are increasingly engaging multi-stakeholders\ which reflects the growing importance of operating an open\ inclusive\ and transparent consultative body in a democratic manner as well as growing role of non-state actors in giving concrete shape to related discussions. But even as the participation of multi-stakeholders is expanding\ they are mostly likely to be observers and their participation is also limited due to disagreements between states. Moreover\ participation of multi-stakeholders is limited to some developed countries mostly due to capability gaps between countries and developing countries’ financial strains.


Ⅱ. Key Issues 

There is a broad consensus on the need to regulate the military use of new technologies\ but countries and competing blocs are still at odds over the specific scope and level of regulations. While some countries support the idea of introducing comprehensive regulation of emerging technologies’ military application to mitigate risks\ others argue that regulations should target specific types of military application. In addition\ while there is a group of countries intent on limiting regulations to wartime\ some countries give a contrasting view\ arguing that regulations should cover all stages of military application regardless of peacetime or war\ from research and development to actual deployment. These differences in views between countries and competing blocs are also found in areas like cyberspace\ space\ and autonomous weapons\ which are all related to the formation of future international security\ disarmament and non-proliferation regimes.  
 
Reports adopted by the United Nations or other international organizations basically contain recommendations that are not legally binding. Nevertheless\ they are legal instruments in a broad sense. This explains why some experts constantly stress the need for a legally-binding treaty or a political declaration of the United Nations. While China\ Russia and developing countries are pushing for a treaty\ the U.S. and its Western partners are against this idea\ with some countries within the Western bloc willing to adopt a political declaration to take a first tentative step. However\ with emerging technologies still in development\ creating norms to regulate the military application of emerging technologies is no easy task. 
 
Discussions on establishing the laws and norms regulating the military application of emerging technologies are inevitably related to the application of international law\ and the primary principles of international law are sovereignty and jurisdiction; self-defense and countermeasures; state responsibility; international humanitarian law and human rights. A treaty regarding the military application of emerging technologies are hardly likely to made at least in the near future\ but should countries work to adopt a report in the years ahead\ the primary principle of international law will be the core agendas. This is based on the consensus reached among countries and will serve as the basis for state practice\ an essential element of customary international law in regulating the military applications of emerging technologies.
 
As to applying the aforementioned principles of international law\ the positions adopted by countries and competing blocs vary depending on the characteristics of emerging technologies and each country’s technological capabilities. State actors and competing blocs are sharply divided over the application of self-defense\ countermeasures\ and international humanitarian law in the cyber and space sectors. The U.S. and the Western bloc are taking bold steps in applying self-defense and countermeasures. In contrast\ China\ Russia\ and the NAM’s member states are obstinately opposed to the idea\ arguing that such attempts will create cyber and space battlefields. In particular\ since most cyber and space activities occur at ordinary times\ the U.S. adheres to its position to ease the standards for mobilizing self-defense measures. In the case of AI’s military applications\ the most critical issue revolves around whether to apply international humanitarian law in regulating their development\ integration\ and use. Ironically\ China and Russia are not vehemently opposed to applying international humanitarian law regarding the military applications of AI\ which stands in contrast to their opposition to the military applications of cyber and space technologies. 


Ⅲ. Outlook and Implications 

In the case of cyber\ space\ and AI technologies\ the primary issue in discussing relevant international laws and norms is how to regulate their military applications. And the Open-ended Working Group (OEWG)\ which is an open consultative body\ will likely be utilized to address the issue. Due to the open nature of the OEWG\ a wide spectrum of companies\ NGOs\ and research institutes participate in the OEWG discussions\ are strongly raising the need to develop regulations to regulate emerging technologies’ military applications. China\ Russia\ and the NAM’s member states are also actively discussing the formulation of the related regulations. The discussions will also probably be steered in a new\ different manner. More specifically\ the parties concerned will form sub-working groups in the three fields of norms\ military\ and technology for more detailed\ technical discussions\ and then adopt them through diplomatic negotiations. As these changes reflect that regulations for emerging technologies should be discussed and formulated in consideration of technical and convergent characteristics\ and thus will likely shape future developments as generally accepted guidelines in the coming years.
 
Finding viable pathways for regulating the application of emerging technologies in a military context will eventually proceed with a two-pronged approach: regulating actors’ behavior while regulating the technologies leveraged for military applications. This means that regulating militarily relevant technologies and their applications is associated with discussions on technology control and supply chain security assurance. As the agenda is currently being discussed within each consultative body\ states and blocs are sharply divided over the issue. In other words\ the U.S. and the Western countries basically argue it is inappropriate to discuss the issue under the existing consultative bodies. In contrast\ China\ Russia\ and emerging countries argue that the transfer and proliferation of militarily relevant emerging technologies should be controlled to mitigate the risks of military applications. The supply chain security issue is related to the 5G debate\ with the U.S. and the Western bloc claiming to trade and help emerging technologies that could threaten national and international security proliferate while China and Russia argue that the West arbitrarily undermines supply chain stability for security reasons. 
 
The U.S. and the Western bloc underscore the need to assign the issue to export control consultative bodies. However\ China\ Russia\ and developing countries argue the issue should be discussed within the existing consultative bodies established to address more comprehensive issues relevant to military security. In other words\ China and emerging economies firmly insist that the issue should be brought to the agenda table amid escalating tensions between countries and camps over whether to adopt the issue mentioned above at the existing OEWG and GGE for cyber\ space\ and AI technologies. In addition\ it is forecast that China will facilitate discussions on data security issues within the context of leveraging emerging technologies for military security to gain traction for the “global data security initiative.” This reflects the intersection of economic and military security discussions\ and the existing consultative bodies created to advance military security seem to regard the development and acquisition of emerging technologies as a critical issue to be addressed.
 
With much of the development and application of emerging technologies carried out by individuals and private enterprises and growing threats from non-state actors\ governments are scaling up efforts to discuss relevant initiatives to monitor or regulate these technologies. It is forecast that discussions on the regulation of non-state actors’ actions within the framework of the existing consultative bodies will be facilitated\ albeit to varying degrees for each technology field. And each country will likely adopt a two-pronged approach that regulates specific threats or menacing behavior while overseeing the development\ transfer\ and proliferation of emerging technologies. The twofold nature of the discussions initiated and advanced within the existing consultative bodies stems from a state-centric perspective in regulating non-state actors and different perspectives on state control over the private sector held by states and blocs.


* Attached the File

IFANS  FOCUS

유엔정보안보개방형작업반(OEWG)

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