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Security Effects of Emerging Military Technologies: Implications and Key Issues

Security Effects of Emerging Military Technologies: Implications and Key Issues

Security Effects of Emerging Military Technologies: Implications and Key Issues

중국

미국

Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. New Weapon System: Latest Trends and Distinctive Characteristics
Ⅲ. Key Issues
Ⅳ. Outlook and Implications


Ⅰ. Introduction

Emerging technologies are evolving at a rapid pace in the era of digital transformation. These technologies are rapidly being used for military purposes\ and the resulting state-of-the-art weapons system is altering countries’ military systems\ military operations\ and patterns of warfare\ adding uncertainties to global security and undermining strategic stability across the world.
 
While countries around the world have yet to agree on the rules governing the use of new weapons\ the rise of new weapon systems triggered by the development of emerging technologies\ and the race among the world’s technological powerhouses to develop new weapons are destabilizing the global security environment. This latest trend is being fueled by an arms race between the U.S.\ China\ and Russia. This article takes a closer look at the distinctive features of the new type of weapons based on emerging technologies; the latest trends in the development of new weapons; the impact of new weapon systems on strategic stability and other security implications; key issues regarding the development of new weapons; and how the rise of new weapons will affect South Korea’s diplomacy in the coming years.


Ⅱ. New Weapon System: Latest Trends and Distinctive Characteristics

The characteristics of emerging technologies can be summarized as intelligence\ interconnectivity\ ubiquity\ and digitalization. These features are combined to create synergies and more interdependence\ significantly impacting future military capabilities.
 
In particular\ the security environment shaped by emerging technologies centered around AI integrates physical\ information\ cognitive\ and social areas\ blurring the boundaries between the private sector and the military; wartime and peacetime; and spaces for warfare and everyday lives.
 
Various emerging technologies and new weapons such as cyber technology\ unmanned aerial vehicles\ drones\ artificial intelligence (AI)\ autonomous weapons\ Internet of Things (IoT)\ 3D printing\ hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM)\ unmanned surface vehicles (USV)\ directed energy weapons\ biotechnology\ and quantum technology are changing the operation concept of warfare. Unmanned weapons and hypersonic weapons\ in particular\ are being perceived as game-changer.  
 
“Swarming” is an operation powered by AI\ IoT\ and autonomous driving technology\ in which many unmanned systems work together. It is more effective than operating a single system\ and many countries are scrambling to develop small-sized\ low-cost new weapons systems since developing a state-of-the-art weapons system costs a tremendous amount of money.  
 
China and Russia have reportedly had significant success in developing hypersonic missiles. Current missile defense systems cannot intercept or strike hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic weapons can travel at low altitudes\ making it difficult for adversaries to intercept once they are released. Unlike ballistic missiles\ hypersonic weapons glide on an unpredictable path as they can change trajectory and target during their flight. The possibility of hypersonic weapons replacing nuclear arsenals - which are extremely unlikely to be used in future warfare - or neutralizing missile defense systems are being raised\ but this issue remains controversial.
 
While the development of advanced weapons could transform future warfare into network-centered warfare focused on long-range precision attacks\ security issues will become more important in the future as new weapons systems can be exposed to the risk of cyber attacks or malfunctions.
 
The U.S. and China are racing to reach supremacy in quantum physics\ and if the full potential of quantum technology is realized\ it would allow a country to detect stealth planes and effectively protect against cyberattacks on nuclear weapons and facilities as it encrypts a message in such a way that it would never be read by hackers. But the same technology could allow hackers to quickly decrypt encrypted data\ undermining cybersecurity.


Ⅲ. Key Issues

Advances in emerging technology are seriously threatening crisis stability as they are creating a security environment where a party could be easily tempted to launch a preemptive strike. For instance\ emerging technologies make it even harder for countries to accurately identify the origin of a cyberattack\ and hypersonic weapons with the potential to neutralize missile defense systems threaten global nuclear security. AI-powered machines’ fast decision-making capabilities could increase unpredictability\ and inexpensive drones can carry out devastating attacks on adversaries.  
 
In particular\ there is a possibility of AI misinterpreting the actions of hostile countries\ so excessive dependence on its decision-making ability could have dangerous consequences. AI can aggravate the crisis by misinterpreting the action of a hostile country aimed at mitigating the crisis as a tactically favorable situation\ or the decision-making algorithm of AI can intentionally be programmed that way. Decisions affecting human lives and warfare should be made based on legal\ political\ and diplomatic assessments\ but artificial intelligence at the current stage cannot behave and reason in this way.
 
Moreover\ hyper-connectivity is making it easier for cyber attackers to launch an attack on a country’s key infrastructure networks and civilian facilities like nuclear power plants operating under less stringent security requirements than nuclear power plants for military use. AI technologies have facilitated the development of weapons with greater precision and detection accuracy\ which could pose a threat to the security of nuclear weapons. 
 
In addition\ non-state actors such as hackers\ terrorists\ and criminal networks can capitalize on new technologies to pose destructive security threats\ and states in turn would prefer a military solution using robots and other unmanned weapons - a scenario which makes war more likely. 
 
But on the flip side\ new technologies such as remote sensing\ image recognition\ and monitoring technologies powered by AI may have a positive effect on the disarmament of nuclear weapons and nuclear non-proliferation by boosting the effectiveness of security requirements and verification regimes for non-proliferation.


Ⅳ. Outlook and Implications

Going forward\ discussions on new weapons will primarily focus on ways to strengthen the existing disarmament structure which could be destabilized by emerging technologies\ and on how to establish a new disarmament regime to deal with new technologies and new weapons. But as the world’s biggest military powers are competing fiercely to build up new weapons\ discussions surrounding the disarmament of emerging weapons are hardly likely to produce tangible outcomes without their participation. 
 
The existing disarmament regime does not apply to emerging technologies and new weapons\ and what is fundamentally important in creating emerging technologies and new weapons governance is each country’s political will as well as agreed norms. Also\ trust-building among countries will be a crucial factor in the formulation of AI and cyber technologies governance. 
 
The world’s tech superpowers are currently vying for leadership in new weapons\ and the competition is set to become fiercer in the years ahead. For this reason\ discussions on new weapons disarmament and norms related to new weapons are likely to take concrete shape outside the borders of superpowers and across civil society. It should be noted that civic groups operating across borders as well as experts with skills and knowledge have played a constructive role in promoting global peace movements and disarmament efforts. When discussions on the norms related to emerging technologies and new weapons begin to take shape\ various NGOs and other actors from the private sector are likely to take the lead and offer valuable insights. 
 
Since cooperation between the private sector and the government agencies is essential for both the development of new weapons and new weapons arms control\ it is recommended that the Korean government facilitate discussions on such topics with experts with relevant knowledge and experience. As the private sector is leading the advancement of emerging technologies with the potential to have a profound impact on future warfare\ unilateral decisions made by the state and military will hardly be able to address the ever-evolving security threats facing the world. 
 
The Korean government should create issue-specific working groups to conduct research on emerging technologies and new weapons and bring various working groups together to share ideas and generate synergies. As military officials\ industry leaders\ and academics are approaching the issues related to emerging technologies and new weapons from different angles\ they should explore ways to align various perspectives\ clarify issues\ and formulate strategies to deal with emerging challenges. 
 
The world is facing the ever-deepening strategic rivalry and technology competition between the United States and China. On top of that\ major tech powerhouses are racing to develop new kinds of weapons with the potential to change the landscape of future warfare. Despite these discouraging developments\ the Korean government\ together with like-minded countries\ should strive to create a positive narrative that the ultimate goal of emerging technologies is to maintain international peace and security.


* Attached the File

IFANS  FOCUS

아시아

북아메리카

신무기

극초음속무기(Hypersonic weapon)

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송태은 외교전략센터 연구교수

송태은

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2021-24E

KOR