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Since the inauguration of President Joe Biden, international and domestic observers have forecast that the new U.S. administration under President Biden will likely adopt an unprecedentedly hard-line Russia policy. The Biden administration has fleshed out its Russia policy with a series of actions and decisions - President Biden's call with President Vladimir Putin, his speech to the U.S. Department of State (DOS) as well as speech to the Munich Security Conference (MSC), U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's remarks at a press briefing, and imposition of a new raft of sanctions against Russia.
In response to the Biden administration's hard-line stance on Russia, President Putin said on February 24 in his annual speech at the Federal Security Service (FSB) that a policy of containment against Russia is gaining ground in terms of keeping Russia under the West's control. Moreover, President Putin ordered the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia to pay special attention to preventing outside forces from depriving the Russian people of their rights in the upcoming general elections scheduled in September, which indicates that U.S. involvement in Russia's domestic politics got on the Kremlin's nerves. At the same time, however, the Kremlin sent out a positive message by saying that Moscow is poised to talk with Washington based on mutual trust and respect.
The current bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Russia, which has been in a downward spiral since Russia's annexation of Crimea, is considered at its lowest point in the post-Cold War era. Under these circumstances, there was a hopeful prospect that the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the U.S. and Russia agreed at the end of January would serve as an opportunity to improve the bilateral relations, but the gloomy prospect for aggravating relations between Washington and the Kremlin for the time being looms larger.
With no conspicuous sign of immediate improvements in U.S.-Russia relations, President Biden ordered Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), to comprehensively investigate and report on Russia's recent aggressive actions against the U.S. In this regard, Secretary of State Blinkon told a news conference on January 27 that as the investigation is underway, corresponding actions will be taken, and his team will not rule anything out in implementing due measures.
Secretary of State Blinken said that the DOS is investigating multiple incidents: the Russian government's persecution of Alexey Navalny, the use of banned chemical weapons in an attempt to assassinate Navalny, allegations of instigating murders of U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan, the SolarWinds hack case and the aftermath, and Russia's interference in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
It seems imperative to make a level-headed projection for how the U.S.-Russia relationship in the Biden era will affect the ROK-Russia relationship and the Moon Jae-in administration's New Northern Policy. This is due to the possibility of various factors other than the issues mentioned above raised by the U.S. that could make Washington and the Kremlin confront each other such as a possible U.S. involvement in protecting democracies within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), expansion of U.S. sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 project, and addressing challenges in the Middle East.
So far, it can be inferred that disposition to be guided by the logic of confrontation and deterrence rather than seek ways to cooperate would dominate the process of shaping the U.S. relationship with Russia judging from the messages from the Biden administration, which is at its inception. However, just as the Obama administration adopted the "Reset" policy, it is anticipated that the Biden administration will likely seek ways to forge and advance technical cooperation with Russia in advancing U.S. national interests.
Therefore, it appears that we need to prime its ways forward in the Biden era by fleshing out its vision for the &mini-multilateral' format involving the U.S. as well as Russia that is designed to promote stability in Northeast Asia. In particular, it is crucial that we prepare a phased approach to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons program and ways to link it up with &mini-multilateral' cooperation in the region if there is any progress in the stalled U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks.
* Attached the File
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