| bibo:abstract |
Ⅰ. The Status and Cause of the Spread of COVID-19 in Latin American and the Caribbean
Ⅱ. Latin American and Caribbean Countries' Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis
III. Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Latin America and the Caribbean
Ⅳ. Policy Considerations
Ⅰ. The Status and Cause of the Spread of COVID-19 in Latin American and the Caribbean
1. The Current Status of the COVID-19 Pandemic
COVID-19 cases have been rising sharply in Latin America and the Caribbean with over 2.5 million confirmed cases and 0.11 million deaths reported as of June 29. And since then, more than 50,000 new infections have been reported a day, and additional 2,000 deaths have been registered.
As most Latin American and Caribbean countries are struggling with fast and thorough diagnosis of COVID-19, it is assumed that the full impact of COVID-19 on Latin America is still unknown. And with many Latin American countries loosening their quarantine measures, it is anticipated that there will be a sharp spike in new COVID-19 infections in the region.
Paraguay, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Argentina have been less affected by COVID-19, compared to Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Chile, thanks to their immediate priorities on orchestrating health professionals’ expertise, and government efforts made with opposition parties’ cooperation. Brazil has recorded the highest COVID-19 infection level in the region so far, with a total of more than 1.37 million confirmed cases and 58,000 deaths.
And it has been registering daily records for more than 25,000 new infections and 7 million deaths. But, what’s noting is that Chile and Peru have the highest number of confirmed infections and deaths relative to population sizes in the region.
Meanwhile, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Costa Rica have registered the lowest number of confirmed cases relative to population sizes in the region, thanks mostly to their quick and effective responses to the crisis based on robust governance.
2. The Cause of the Rapid Spread of COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean
While the COVID-19 pandemic has been ravaging the world, it holds true that multiple independent variables including poverty, social inequality, the issue of unregistered workers, political leadership, and other socio-cultural factors have affected countries differently in terms of the scope and speed of the spread of the virus.
In the early stage of the outbreak, the coronavirus was perceived as a “rich man’s disease” because the number of infections was highest among the upper class who can afford travelling Europe and the U.S. But the virus is killing the poor with more than 80 percent of new infections registered in metropolitan slum areas. And it is anticipated that there will be a steep rise in new infections in those areas. This can largely be attributed to their poor living conditions. Approximately 30 percent of Latin America’s population is marginalized from social safety net programs and health insurances, and there are a significant number of unregistered workers forming about 53 percent of the entire population in the region. With the COVID-19 lockdown extended, many of them are violating the lockdown imposed to contain the virus for their bread and butter.
Many Latin American and Caribbean countries have failed to rally around governments’ centralized efforts in the face of a national crisis. And some insensitive comments from populist leaders aggravated the situation. Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro and Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador have been sceptical of health experts’ warnings and recommendations regarding quarantine, which resulted in an increase in COVID-19-related mortality. And Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has been accused of turning a blind eye to the pandemic, arguing that mandatory quarantine measures are unnecessary and people should take charge of their own health.
There are various factors raising the risk of increasing COVID-19 infections in the region. Most Latin American and Caribbean countries have been afflicted with social marginalization, epidemics, violence, and crimes such as homicide. As a result, they tend to prioritize the pursuit of economic interests over advancing public health and safety. And the cultural habits of the region are characterized by close personal contact, and extended families are the basic family unit.
Ⅱ. Latin American and Caribbean Countries' Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis
The best way to minimize the spread of highly contagious COVID-19 is to ban any form of personal contact and social interaction. But as this would cause the economic damage threatening livelihoods of millions, performing diagnostic tests on a large scale to impose a mandatory quarantine on the infected would be a more realistic way to flatten the COVID-19 curve.
However, as many Latin American and Caribbean countries are incapable of performing fast, accurate diagnosis, governments in the region have been imposing quarantines and lockdown, and providing COVID-19 emergency relief fund for the socially and economically disadvantaged. But the levels of quarantine measures vary among countries, which include mandatory quarantine, voluntary self-quarantine, partial quarantine, non-mandatory quarantine, and no quarantine.
The Levels of Quarantine Measures Imposed in Latin America and the Caribbean
In an attempt to cushion the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 shock, governments in the region decided to spend an average of 2.4 percent of their GDPs on public health services, resuscitating economies, and economic relief packages for the socially marginalized. Unfortunately, their spendings fall short of global average of 3.7 percent on relief efforts. And there is a huge gap among countries depending on fiscal deficits and national debt. For instance, Peru decided to spend 12 percent of its GDP while Mexico announced to spend less than 1 percent.
III. Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Latin America and the Caribbean
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the global trade slowdown, the decline in raw material prices and transfer earning, and tourism is one of the hardest hits of the virus. As a result, it is forecast that the economies in the region will record a negative growth rate of –5.3% in 2020, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). In the short term, this will likely result in the slowdown or suspension in production, a decrease in wages and earnings leading to rising poverty, a drop in demand for goods and services, and the fragmentation of the health care systems as well as inequal access to health care. And in the medium- to long-term, company bankruptcies, a decrease in investments, low economic growth, a drop in economies’ integration into global value chains and declining productivity, and a decrease in human capital, are anticipated.
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the chronic structural problems of Latin America and the Caribbean including poverty, social inequality, and the issue of unregistered workers. And many in the region are making organized efforts to urge their governments to improve health care systems and social safety net programs. Therefore, it is anticipated that the governments will have difficulty implementing economic reform and tight fiscal policy.
Chile postponed a referendum on a new constitution around safety concerns. Bolivia also postponed its presidential election for a second time due to coronavirus. Another thing worth noting is that an increasing number of people in the region are showing preference for stronger presidential power. And governments are turning to increasingly stringent measures, deploying
armed forces to enforce coronavirus lockdowns. Therefore, the current crisis can jeopardize democracies in the region, tightening authoritarian control.
With the COVID-19 pandemic getting worse in the U.S., Beijing has attempted to fill the leadership vacuum left by Washington in the region and extended its reach through medical diplomacy with massive mask donations. In response, the U.S. decided to provide additional assistance for Mexico and other countries. As a result, the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America and the Caribbean is intensifying.
Ⅳ. Policy Considerations
In the COVID-19 era, it is recommended that the Korean government should deepen solidarity and cooperation with Latin American and Caribbean countries to help them recover and build resilient societies through engagement policy that underscores social integration. In this way, Korea will be able to strengthen its diplomatic standing, and the Korean government needs to use that momentum to make its public diplomacy be in full swing in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Moreover, it is advised that the Korean government should devise realistic, creative reponses suitable for the region and donate masks and medical equipment to the most vulnerable countries. Last but not least, the Korean government needs to find ways to facilitate “untact” exchange, forge robust partnerships to diversify economic and diplomatic relations in the post-COVID-19 era, and work with the Korean communities in the region.
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