| bibo:abstract |
Ⅰ. What Propels the Rapid Spread of COVID-19?
Ⅱ. Different Developments by Country: Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel
Ⅲ. Outlook and Implications
Brazil and the U.S. have been quickly emerging as the epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic on the American continent. While East Asian and European countries have seen new coronavirus infections decline in recent weeks, spikes in confirmed case numbers have alarmed the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel have faced the cycle of lockdown (quarantine), slowdown, loosening the lockdown, and a resurgence of reported cases, visualized as an M-shaped graph with a vertical line of symmetry.
As the pandemic spreads across all continents, governments have taken different approaches to tackling it, which resulted in either a resurgence or slowdown of confirmed cases. What deserves attention is that the Middle East coronavirus cases can be precedents for East Asian and European countries which subsided the virus to some extent.
Ⅰ. What Propels the Rapid Spread of COVID-19?
Amid the global pandemic, the close contact environments of various clusters have caused the virus to spread so quickly. Many global health experts have pointed to poverty, inadequate access to health care services, and the wealth gap, as main factors aggravating the situation. Aside from these generally found factors, what distinguishes the Middle East cases from other parts of the world can be summed up as its religion, a constant influx of migrant workers, and community-centered environments.
The religious factors in the Middle East appear to be one of the main culprits for the rampant spread of COVID-19. This fits the three monotheistic religions of Islam, Christianity, and Judaism. These religions underscore the importance of regular gathering and passion for pilgrimage, which accelerates the spread of the virus.
It is important to control cross-border movements of people in order to stop the spread of infections. But as there are a large number of migrant workers in the Middle East, it is practically impossible to conduct effective contact tracing.
In most Middle Eastern countries, the family unit is a patriarchical, extended family based on the concept of ‘Asabiyya( عصبيّة)’that values social solidarity with an emphasis on family unity and group cohesion. So, their social interactions center around close contacts, within families or religious gatherings.
Ⅱ. Different Developments by Country: Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel
It appears that the Iran case can be reviewed in connection with Shi’a elements in Iraq, Syria, and Southern Lebanon. In the case of Saudi Arabia, it would be useful to focus on its status representing Sunni-ruled Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. What’s been unfolding in Israel amid the crisis also deserves attention in the context of its unique culture and history in the region.
1. Iran: the Top-down Spread with the High Number of Infections among High-profile Religious and Political Leaders/The Epicenter of COVID-19 in the Shi’a Crescent
Iran, the self-proclaimed leader of the Shi’a world, reported the first confirmed case of COVID-19 and has the highest number of confirmed infections in the region.
Since the revival of U.S. sanctions, Iran has expanded its ties with China to compensate for the losses caused by the scale-down of economic cooperation with European partners, South Korea, and Japan. The virus may have been brought to the country by a businessman who had travelled to China.
As the first patient is from Qom, considered holy in Shi’a Islam, Iran saw a dramatic spike in the number of COVID-19 infections among high-profile religious and political leaders.
Then the virus rapidly spread across poor and middle-class households, deepening the discontent and economic grievances of the Iranian public after the revival of sanctions.
As mentioned, Iran has become the flaming epicenter of COVID-19, and its reputation in the region has been questioned. And as some even argue that Iran should be held accountable for the spread of the virus, Iran’s leadership seems to be in confusion. The issue of Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, is anticipated to spark controversy in Iran as the country is facing public health security risks.
2. Saudi Arabia: the Bottom-up Spread/Its Influence in the Gulf in Peril
Saudi Arabia, the self-proclaimed leader of Sunni-ruled Gulf states, has seen a sharp increase in COVID-19 infections since the first confirmed case. The first patient of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, was a Saudi national traveling from Iran to the Kingdom through Bahrain. The patient is from the Eastern Province of the Kingdom where Shi’a Muslims form a dominant majority, and visited major Shi’a shrines.
Unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has not reported cluster infections among high-profile royals as well as religious and political leaders. Rather, it has seen the bottop-up spread with the high number of confirmed cases among poor households, migrant workers, and the Shi’a who form a religious minority in the country.
The COVID-19 crisis led to a sharp drop in Saudi’s oil exports, increasing the risk of its financial crisis. As Russia long rejected OPEC’s pleas to reduce output, and both Saudi and Russia decided to increase oil production, the oil industry was once in a chaotic state with oil prices plunging below zero. This will likely be challenges for the country despite Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)’s landmark reforms.
3. Israel: the Spread within the Country/Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Staying in Power
Despite its relatively well-functioning healthcare system and infrastructure in the region and tight government control, Israel failed to stop the spread of COVID-19, facing another wave of infections.
Utilizing its intelligence capabilities, Israel has taken the strongest quarantine and contact tracing measures in the region to combat the virus. And the Netanyahu government is also keeping a sharp eye on latest developments in the Haredi Orthodox Jewish community, and overseas Jewish communities.
Ironically, the COVID-19 crisis gave politically embattled Prime Minister Netanyahu another chance to stay in power, affecting Israel’s political landscape.
In imposing quarantine and lockdown measures in the Palestinian Territories - the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, Israel has provided limited assistance, and established a joint command center with Palestine to manage the crisis. However, the issue of annexing Jordan Valley is anticipated to thwart such efforts.
Ⅲ. Outlook and Implications
1. Domestic Politics: Securitization and Tightened Authoritarian Controls
It is a very likely scenario that authoritarian governments in the Middle East will tighten control in handling state affairs and implement hard-line policies even after bringing the current pandemic under control. This will likely affect the Middle East’s political picture in the coming years. Tightening authoritarian controls through “extreme securitization”may block regional players from bouncing back from crises by weakening their resilience and flexibility, ultimately resulting in rapid political changes.
2. Local Economy : A Looming Crisis
As the spread of COVID-19 continues to curb oil demand, fundamentals are turning extremely weak and sending oil prices tumbling to record-lows.
Global demand for oil needs to rise as production cuts won’t be enough to significantly lift low oil prices. Oil prices depend on China's economic recovery, as the country is the world's largest oil importer. But Chinese oil demand has dropped by about 3 million barrels a day. It is expected that oil-producing countries will grow more dependent on China for the forseeable future, and the Gulf monarchies are likely to deepen cooperation with China to implement their ambitious reform projects.
Yet for non-oil producers in the Middle East, the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to dry up a vital source of income - remittances. A prolonged crisis could lead to the forced closure of businesses and termination of employment contracts, forcing
workers employed in foreign countries to return home. This would quickly dry up remittance flows, and countries that rely heavily on remittance income are likely to suffer severe financial hardship.
Tourism is a major source of revenue for several countries with numerous historic sites like Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Morocco as well as for Israel with a busy site of pilgrimage. These countries are expected to experience a collapse in receipts from tourism if the pandemic prolongs.
3. International Politics: China’s Growing Presence and a Rising Tide of Geopolitical Chaos
China’s foreign policy towards the Middle East had narrowly focused on economic ties, but since 2019, Beijing has increased its political and military engagement in the region.
The sweeping COVID-19 crisis has presented opportunities for China to ramp up its political and military presence in the Middle East, and the Chinese leadership has raised the notion of a “Health Silk Road,”a banner under which China highlights the importance of the Middle East and seeks to advance its interests in the region, based on the belief that the Middle East is a critical region that connects China to Europe.
By contrast, America’s foreign policy towards the Middle East has remained somewhat “passive”in the wake of the Iraq war. It is a trend that has persisted for many years along with President Obama’s strategic rebalancing to Asia and President Trump’s isolationist policies.
A complex mixture of abovementioned factors - economic crisis, securitization and authoritarianism - is likely to affect regional politics, which will allow Russia and China to seize on the incremental retreat of the U.S. from the Middle East and rise as dominant foreign powers in the region.
American withdrawal caused by Trump’s isolationism as well as Russia and China’s aggressive expansion of sphere of influence is expected to cause a structural change in the region - a power vacuum giving rise to a new predominant power. This can push the Middle East into geopolitical chaos when combined with a multitude of other risks facing the region: political instability in the Gulf (fueled by the steep oil price decline); political upheaval in fragile regions like Lebanon and North Africa; resurgence of terrorist groups in places like Iraq and Lybia and Israel’s hard-line turn.
4. Human Security : Multi-layered Crises Unfolding in the Region
The Syrian war is rumbling into its 10th year, and ongoing conflicts and divisions continue to take a heavy toll on the Middle East. The region already hosts 7.4 million refugees and 9.3 internally displaced persons (IDPs), who are living in substandard conditions.
The Middle East faces a multi-layered human security crisis as the coronavirus pandemic, together with other major problems - civil wars refugees, terrorist attacks and natural disaster - continues to plague the region. The international community has to pay keen attention to the crisis unfolding in the hardest-hit regions and provide much-needed support. Except for several oil-rich nations, most of the cash-strapped countries in the Middle East have fragile health system and weak capacities for quarantine. Another concern is that these nations, as their governance is near collapse, might lose their abilities to effectively deliver and distribute humanitarian supplies to those in need. To make matters worse, some fragile states are rejecting humanitarian aid from abroad, triggering a dual crisis. Measures should be taken to keep track of the attempts to that are being made obstruct humanitarian aid.
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