| bibo:abstract |
IF2020-10E
COVID-19 Crisis and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
May 7, 2020
MIN Jeonghun
Associate Professor, Dept. of American Studies
The 2020 U.S. presidential election, scheduled to be held on November 3, will elect a new leader who will lead the nation for the next four years. It is expected that the upcoming election will be a contest for the White House between incumbent president Donald Trump on the Republican side and former vice president Joe Biden on the Democratic side. Before the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) hit hard the United States, the national conditions of the 2020 presidential election favored President Trump because his
concrete supporters were stable and the U.S. enjoyed an economic boom for the past three years. But the race has been thrown into further
uncertainty due to the pandemic crisis.
I. Public Opinion Polls and Electoral College Forecast on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
II. The COVID-19 Crisis, Presidential Approval, and the Status of the U.S. Economy
Ⅲ. The COVID-19 and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Campaign
Ⅳ. Conclusion
This article examined how the COVID-19 crisis could affect the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The
pandemic crisis has dramatically altered the 2020
election landscape that was more favorable to
President Trump before the COVID-19 outbreak.
But if the spread of the virus will slow down and be
brought under control around June and the U.S.
economy starts to rebound in the third quarter, and
if President Trump is not involved in a disastrous
controversy during the process, the COVID-19
crisis would have a limited impact on his reelection.
Under such a scenario, several factors - President
Trump’s incumbent advantage, his concrete
supporters, the economic boom during his first
three years in office, and his administration’s
efforts to cushion the economic hardship of the
pandemic crisis - will make it easier for President
Trump to mobilize his supporters as well as
independent voters on the election day.
Controversies over Biden, which will emerge during
the campaign, would also contribute to increasing
President Trump’s reelection odds.
But this outlook presupposes President
Trump’s successful handling of the COVID-19
crisis. If he fails to overcome the political and
economic challenges posed by the pandemic crisis
and the U.S. economy does not begin to rebound by
this fall, it is likely that President Trump’s
reelection odds would significantly decrease. In
addition, if Biden successfully manages the
challenges surrounding him and present himself as
a viable alternative to President Trump during the
campaign, we could not rule out the possibility of
having another one-term president in U.S. history.
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