| bibo:abstract |
IF2018-41E
Options for the House of Commons on Brexit
December 24, 2018
JUN Hae-Won
Associate Professor, Dept. of European and African Studies
I. Introduction
Less than 100 days are left before the United
Kingdom withdraws from the European
Union (EU), which would end 45 years of
its EU membership. The UK, which
decided to withdraw from the EU by referendum in
June 2016, began the withdrawal process by
formally notifying the EU of its withdrawal on
March 29, 2017. As a result, on 25 November 2018,
the UK and the EU reached an agreement on the
‘Agreement on the withdrawal of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland from the European Union and the
European Atomic Energy Community,’ (the
Withdrawal Agreement henceforth), and ‘the
Political Declaration setting out the framework for
the future of the European Union and the United
Kingdom, (the Political Declaration, henceforth).
The Withdrawal Agreement mainly sets
out instruments to minimize the personal,
economic, social and political disruption and
damage that will result from the Brexit. It also
establishes the transition period covering from the
withdrawal date on 29 March 2019 to the start of
the UK-EU future relationship on 31 December
2020. The UK-EU relationship during the
transition period remains the same as the current
one, including the customs union and the single
market, except that the United Kingdom ceases to
have voting rights in the EU institutions.
The political declaration on the future
UK-EU relationship is a legally non-binding
commitment to pursuing close cooperation in the
future, taking into account the UK's special status as
a former member of the EU. While the UK is a
member of the EU, full-scale trade negotiations are
legally impossible. Therefore, negotiations on the
UK-EU future relationship, which are far more
complex and long-term than those on the
Withdrawal Agreement, are still at an early stage.
Currently, there is no majority to support
the Withdrawal Agreement in the UK House of
Commons, the approval of which is essential to
avoid a no-deal Brexit. Such lack of consensus over
the Withdrawal Agreement is mainly due to the
so-called "backstop" of the Irish border issue. The
core of this safeguard is that until the UK-EU future
trade relations, are determined, Northern Ireland
remains indefinitely in the EU single customs
territory and the single market, with the UK and EU
forming a single customs territory. If the UK-EU
trade agreement is not concluded by 31 December
2020, border control measures between the UK
mainland and Northern Ireland are highly likely to
be adopted and the UK will not be able to enter into
free trade agreements with third countries. Namely,
the Withdrawal Agreement could indirectly limit
negotiation options on the future relationship
between the UK and the EU by setting up a default
outcome. Therefore, the Withdrawal Agreement is
not merely a technical agreement needed for the
UK’s orderly withdrawal from the EU. Rather, it has
emerged as a political issue that redefines, or could
even shake British unity and Britain’s status in
Europe.
II. Options for the House of Commons
Ⅲ. Policy Recommendations for Korea
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