외교안보연구소 발간자료

IFANS FORECAST 2017

IFANS FORECAST 2017

IFANS FORECAST 2017

중국

일본

북한

러시아

미국

IFANS FORECAST 2017 
1. INTRODUCTION
2. NORTHEAST ASIAN REGION AND FOUR MAJOR POWERS
2-1. NORTHEAST ASIA 12
2-2. THE UNITED STATES 13
2-3. CHINA 14
2-4. JAPAN 16
2-5. RUSSIA 16
3. KOREAN PENINSULA
3-1. NORTH KOREA 20
3-2. INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS 20
4. OTHER MAJOR REGIONS OF THE WORLD
4-1. SOUTHEAST ASIA 24
4-2. SOUTHWEST ASIA 25
4-3. CENTRAL ASIA 25
4-4. MIDDLE EAST 26
4-5. EUROPE 27
4-6. AFRICA 27
4-7. LATIN AMERICA 28
5. GLOBAL ISSUES AND GOVERNANCE
5-1. GLOBAL FINANCE/CURRENCY 32
5-2. INTERNATIONAL TRADE 32
5-3. INTERNATIONAL LAW AND REGIME 33
5-4. CLIMATE CHANGE 34
5-5. PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 35
1. Introduction
The overview of international affairs in 2017 could be described as “RA2
.” 
Major countries of the world will “Re-Assess” or “Re-Arrange” their original 
policy goals and priorities, which will result in a complex international 
environment.
The election of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential elections in November 
2016 will exert a profound influence on international politics, economy and 
diplomacy. 
While President-elect Trump is expected to carry out many of the Republican 
Party’s original policies in the domestic sphere, his foreign policy will take the 
path of “new isolationism,” based on minimal U.S. intervention and the 
principle of “America First.”
Trump’s foreign policy will especially be focused on containing, or “bashing” 
China, which has been rising to a new superpower status for the last few 
decades.
This transformation of U.S. foreign policy will result in a major change in 
great power relations surrounding Northeast Asia, including U.S.-China, 
U.S.-Russia, U.S.-Japan, China-Russia, and Russia-Japan relations. The 
change will affect the situation on the Korean Peninsula as well.
Nevertheless, whether these changes will lead to the promotion of common 
goods and progression of human history, or a partial retrogression, is still 
unclear. Thus, international relations of 2017 will, as a saying in an ancient 
Chinese book goes: “seem to be moving but actually static (若動而靜),” and 
“seem to be progressing forward but actually standing still (似去而留).”

국제정세전망

도널드 트럼프

아시아

남아메리카

유럽

아프리카

America First

new isolationism

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외교안보연구소

외교안보연구소

외교안보연구소

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2017

KOR