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Scenarios for Political Change in Kim Jong-un’s North Korea and Strategies to Implement the Trust-Building Process on the Korean Peninsula

Scenarios for Political Change in Kim Jong-un’s North Korea and Strategies to Implement the Trust-Building Process on the Korean Peninsula

Scenarios for Political Change in Kim Jong-un’s North Korea and Strategies to Implement the Trust-Building Process on the Korean Peninsula

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[IFANS Brief 2014-14]


Scenarios for Political Change in Kim Jong-un’s North Korea and Strategies to Implement the Trust-Building Process on the Korean Peninsula

- JUN Bong-Geun


1. Major Factors Affecting North Korea's Political Situation

1-1. Stability of the Kim Jong-un regime’s political authority

1-2. Improvement in economic management and relaxation of the socialist economic system

1-3. Continuation of close ties between North Korea and China

1-4. Nuclear armament


2. Counterstrategies for Each Political Scenario

2-1. Scenario of regime instability

2-2. Scenario of regime control

2-3. Scenario of regime stability


3. Conclusion: Plans for Carrying Out the Trust-Building Process for Each Possible Political Scenario in North Korea

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Scenarios for Political Change in Kim Jong-un’s North Korea and Strategies to Implement the Trust-Building Process on the Korean Peninsula

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JUN Bong-Geun

"20140129"^^xsd:integer

2014-14

ENG