외교안보연구소 발간자료

North Korea in Transition and its Future

North Korea in Transition and its Future

North Korea in Transition and its Future

북한

North Korea in Transition and its Future
 
September 09, 2010 
JUN Bong-Geun
Professor
Dept. of National Security and Unification Studies
A series of events and incidents 
in North Korea, including
North Korean leader Kim 
Jong-il‟s reported stroke in 
2008, the second nuclear test, the currency
reform, third-generation power succession
efforts as well as the Cheonan incident, is
expected to increase uncertainty of the 
future of the North Korean regime. 
Therefore, this report analyzes the current
situation inside North Korea and examines
the trend of changes being observed inside
the regime with an aim to improve our 
capacity in responding to the changes. 
In this regard, this report argues that 
North Korea has passed through three 
developmental stages and that the North
Korean national goal of the “2012 
Powerful and Prosperous Nation” cannot
be achieved as long as it stays in the current
course of nuclear armament and the state-led socialist economic management.
It is unlikely that, by the year 2012, 
North Korea will achieve the targets of 
improving the U.S.-North Korea relations,
stabilizing the socialist system, recovering
economy, and resolving the food problem. 
In fact, it would be impossible for the 
regime to recover its economy and 
resolve the food problem as long as it 
maintains its socialist economic system 
under UN sanctions. Failure in economic
policies, an aggravated food shortage, and
also worsening of the foreign environment
have increased the possibility that the 
people‟s trust in Kim Jong-il will eventually
erode and the level of instability in the 
system will increase.

기타

김정일

국제연합(UN)

2009년 북한 2차 핵 실험

천안함사건

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전봉근

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2010-21

KOR