외교안보연구소 발간자료

Prospects for International Relations in 2006

Prospects for International Relations in 2006

Prospects for International Relations in 2006

중국

이란

일본

북한

대한민국

러시아

미국

1. International Politics

1.1 Continued Uncertainty from the Spread of

Terrorism/Violence and Remaining Nuclear Problems 

1.1.1 Regionalization and Deepening of International

Terrorism/Violence

1.1.2 Negative Repercussions of Delayed Iran Nuclear

Negotiations

1.2 Proliferation of Unconventional Security Threats and

the “Securitization” of Natural Disasters

1.2.1 Proliferation of “21st Century Vintage” Unconventional

Security Threats

1.2.2 Securitization of National Disasters

1.3 Strategic Emergence of India and Central Asia and

the Superpowers

1.3.1 Rise of India and Central Asia’s Strategic Importance

1.3.2 The Start of Great Games among the Superpowers

1.4 UN Reforms in Deadlock

1.4.1 Continued Difficulty for the Security Council and

the Secretariat Reform

1.4.2 Secretary-General Election Campaign Begins

2. International Economy

2.1 Continuation of Overall Stable Growth

2.1.1 Improved Adaptability of the International Economy to

Risk Factors

2.1.2 Slow Economic Recovery of Developed Countries

2.1.3 Continued High Growth Momentum of

New Rising Countries and Developing Countries

2.2 Latent Factors Limiting Growth

2.2.1 Short-term Economic Imbalance between

the United States and East Asian Countries

2.2.2 Possibility of Continued High Oil Prices

2.2.3 Remaining Non-Economic Uncertainties

2.3 Growth of China and India’s Economic and Influence

2.3.1 Rapid Rise of China and India’s Esteem in

the World Economy

2.3.2 Nations Intensifying Efforts to Access China and India

2.4 Difficulties in the Advance of Multilateralism and

the Proliferation of Regionalism

2.4.1 Expected Difficulty in DDA Negotiations

2.4.2 Proliferation of Regionalism

3. Northeast Asia and Regional Cooperation

3.1 Intensification of Strategic Cross-check and Competitive

Relationships between U.S.-Japan and China-Russia

3.2 Intensification of Conflicts over History-Territorial

Disputes and National Tendencies

3.3 Intensified Diplomacy and Competition for Resources

3.4 Continuation of Mediation Phase for Resolving

the North Korean Nuclear Problem

3.5 Expansion of Regional Cooperation Scope to Cope with

Unconventional Security Threats

4. The Korean Peninsula and Inter-Korean Relations

4.1 Strengthening Internal Solidarity in North Korea 

4.1.1 The Military-First Policy Era and Strengthening Solidarity

4.1.2 Continued Pursuit of the July 1st Economic Management

Improvement Measures and Mitigating Adverse Effects 

4.1.3 Solving the Food Problem and Strengthening

Social Control

4.2 Continuation of North Korea’s Selective Strategy toward

South Korea

4.2.1 Priority of Economic Cooperation with South Korea

4.2.2 Continued Emphasis on National Cooperation

4.3 Imbalance in Inter-Korean Relations 

4.3.1 Continuation of Non-Linear Development

4.3.2 Increasing South Korea’s Role

4.3.3 Expanding Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

4.3.4 Potential for the Success of the Kaeseong Industrial

Complex

4.3.5 Social/Cultural Exchange and Cooperation and

Changes in Humanitarian Assistance

국제정세전망

Kaeseong Industrial

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