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Arms Control on the Korean Peninsula: ROK's Approach
Seo-Hang Lee
1995.04
Introduction: Need for Arms Control on the Korean Peninsula
The Korean peninsula is a region where arms control and confidence-building measures
are badly needed. In 1950-53, Korea experienced a devastating war and ever since
then, the arms race between South Korea and North Korea has continued without any
sign of easing. Currently, the peninsula is one of the few areas in the world facing acute
military confrontation. Along the 155-mile demarcation line dividing the South and the
North, about one and a half million heavily armed soldiers confront each other(See
Table 1). In this situation, there is an urgent need in the peninsula for arms control on a
bilateral basis. The need for arms control on the Korean peninsula can be explored from
four major perspectives.
First, it is imperative to actualize arms control in order to establish a solid peace
system and ultimately to achieve the peaceful unification of the Korean peninsula. A
peace system without any military confidence-buildings measures or any arms
reduction between the South and the North would be unstable and precarious. Since the
legacy of the Korean War still remains and intense military confrontation exists along
the Demilitarized Zone, there and real dangers of renewed armed conflict. The sheer
size of the forces arrayed on both sides ― a million in the North and 650,000 in the
South ― is dangerous enough. This military concentration along the demarcation line
raises the risk of impulsive reaction in tense times. The recent downing of a U.S.
helicopter that strayed into North Korea's airspace showed how easily shooting could
begin on the Korean peninsula. In this circumstance, nothing is more important than
preventing renewed conflict from occurring and transforming it into a solid peace
structure. Arms control will prevent a movement in the South-North relations towards
war, and will also enhance military stability.
Second, arms control is needed to release resources for economic development as a
long-term strategy for the prosperity of the Korean peninsula. The division of the
peninsula and the continued arms race between the two parts have caused a serious
security dilemma whereby the more defensive measures one party adopts to increase
its sense of security, the more insecure the other party feels. The reacting party then
takes additional measures of its own, which causes the first to take more measures, and
so on. This security dilemma has not only undermined both political and military
stability on the Korean peninsula but also affected economic development adversely. In
recognition of this fact, there is a need to reduce the military share of gross national
product(GDP) and to enhance the economic well-being of the Korean people.
Third, arms control is needed to overcome the Cold War legacy on the peninsula and to
contribute to the stability of the Northeast Asian region as a whole. The end of the Cold
War has greatly improved the security climate in the Northeast Asian region ― the
immense ideological barrier that gave rise to distrust and hostility among states for
decades has collapsed. While this does not necessarily mean that peace has finally
arrived, the improvements in relations between states in the region clearly provide new
opportunities for the future. The military confrontation on the Korean peninsula has
been one of the major obstacles in securing peace and stability in Northeast Asia. In
order to pave the way to a regional security arrangement in the region, the question of
a divided Korea needs to be settled first.
Finally, it is argued that arms control between North and South Korea is necessary to
obtain international support in the unification process of the peninsula. If the two
Koreas achieve the unification without any arms control measures or arms reduction,
then a unified Korea will possess enormous military strength. Among the major powers
in Northeast Asia, there is real concern about a militarily-strengthened united Korea. In
particular, no major power wants a nuclear-armed united Korea. Since Korean
unification needs to occur in the context of expanding regional cooperation in Northeast
Asia, it is desirable to eliminate such a negative concern of its surrounding regional
neighbors.
Recent Security Developments on the Korean Peninsula
Arms Control Measures Applicable to the Korean Peninsula
Prospects for Arms Control: Optimism vs. Pessimism
Conclusions
Arms control on the Korean peninsula requires both South and North Korea to move
away from their antagonistic relationship by negotiating with each other to provide
avenues for resolution of political and military disputes or prevention of miscalculations
and misperceptions which could escalate into military conflict. Against this background,
enhancing security and stability on the peninsula, achieving peaceful coexistence, and
fostering unification become the ultimate objectives of arms control in Korea.
To initiate arms control on the peninsula, the measures envisaged in the agreements
adopted by the South and the North should be implemented as early as possible in good
faith. On the basis of sincere and complete implementation of such confidence-building
measures, further steps for effective arms control, including arms reduction, may be
explored. At this moment, what the two sides lack is the solid political will to pursue
arms control and to investigate mutual interests.
Pyongyang should abandon its dubious attitude towards Seoul and reengage in the
inter-Korean dialogue on a bilateral basis. North Korea should recognize that the key to
ultimate unification of the South and the North and the best hope for long-term stability
on the Korean peninsula rests in the hands of the Korean people and thus direct
negotiation between the two Koreas is essential.
To emphasize the importance of bilateral negotiations between the two Koreas,
however, is not necessarily to exclude the role of external powers in the region. Given
the political conditions surrounding the Korean peninsula, any fundamental change in
the inter-Korean situation would, in the long run, require the support of the
international community, particularly the United States, Japan, China and Russia. The
four major powers in the region could support the North-South dialogue, help in the
easing of tensions, facilitate discussion of common security concerns and possibly
guarantee the outcomes negotiated between the two Koreas.
The Future of the Korean Peninsula (Re.*)
Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression and Exchanges
and Cooperation between the South and the North (Re.*)
Protocol for Non-Aggression between the South and the North
(Re.*)
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