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Prospects for International Relations in 2004
THE INSTITUTE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
AND NATIONAL SECURITY
CONTENTS
1.Prospects for International Political and Economic Situation
1.1 Acceleration of the US-led Reshaping of
International Order 5
1.2 Economic Upturns Amid Uncertainty 11
1.3 Mounting Importance of New Diplomatic Issues 21
2. Outlook on Situations in Major Powers and Regions
2.1 United States 27
2.2 Japan 36
2.3 China 45
2.4 Russia 53
2.5 Europe 67
3. Prospects for Security Situation in East Asia and on the Korean Peninsula
3.1 Prospects for East Asia Situation 79
3.2 Regional Cooperation 84
3.3 North Korean Situation 89
3.4 South-North Korea Relations 100
PREFACE
T
he international political and economic scene today is a
mélange of dualities. On the political front, the international community has rallied in a coalition to combat terrorism, which newly surfaced as a transnational security issue in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Underlying the process of rebuilding the global order, however, has been a crisscross of checks and balances and cooperation on a strategic level among those key powers trying to put the brakes on the dominant US lead. Economically, the advance of globalization and the resultant deepening of global economic synchronization are accompanied by regionalization tendencies growing in both depth and breadth as states seek reinforced solidarity within their respective regions.
Meanwhile, issues like human security, the environment, and transnational crime have turned into the primary focus of attention in the diplomatic arena, and worldwide and collective efforts are becoming more crucial to surmount them.
Remarkable advances in information and communications technology, moreover, have led to increased interdependence, which in turn has engendered a rather complex and multi-dimensional international environment. In light of these developments, the discourse on building a new framework for redefining international relations is gradually taking on a more animated tone.
These are all challenging factors that Korea will continue to encounter in the diplomatic sphere. In this light, Korean diplomacy will have to be propped up by perspicacious projections about the international situation’s outlook if it is to be conducted in a way that sufficiently reflects the national interest.
The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) has sought to contribute to the government's foreign policy-making process and enhance the general public's understanding of the international situation through the annual and quinquennial publication of short-term and mid- to long-term prospects for international relations, respectively.
This research document is a fruit of the IFANS' sustained efforts across the board. It is a compilation of in-depth studies by region and function as well as conclusions drawn from hosting and attending international academic conferences, seminars, and on-site research with a view to correctly reading the changes in the international situation.
This document is composed of three chapters in total, with each chapter focusing on the general international political and economic situation, situations in major powers and regions, and the situation in East Asia and on the Korean peninsula and inter-Korean relations. Each chapter takes on the format of reviewing and assessing the developments in its respective areas of study in 2003 and offers prognoses for 2004 based on those findings. In particular, we have devoted the second chapter, which deals exclusively with the situations in major powers and regions, to presenting prospects for each country's or region's domestic situation and their foreign relations and projecting how these countries will tackle the issues surrounding the Korean peninsula with a hope that our efforts may come handy to those working-level officials who are involved in formulating foreign policies.
Last of all, I would like to thank all the research staff who have participated in the drafting of this research document. My special note of appreciation goes to Professor Lee Jae Seung and researcher Hwang Sun Hee, who were in charge of editing this volume, for their strenuous efforts. The IFANS will continue to supplement and improve the international prospects series so that they may serve as useful reference tools for shaping Korea's foreign policy.
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