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Prospects for International Relations in 2003
THE INSTITUTE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND NATIONAL SECURITY
PREFACE
International relations today are driven by two opposing
forces. The political front, for example, is an intersection of strategic cooperation and restraint: while an international coalition is being forged to counter terrorism, which has newly emerged as a transnational security issue since the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, key countries are trying to counter US unilateralism in the course of rebuilding the international order. Economically, as the world economy becomes increasingly synchronized with the advancement of globalization, so too, are regionalization tendencies, spurred by the espousal of regional solidarity, spreading and intensifying.
Against this background, problems like human security, environment, and transnational crime are surfacing as more important issues than ever in the diplomatic realm, and global and collective efforts are becoming critical for their resolution.
Above all, the world order is becoming more complex and multi-dimensional as drastic advances are made in information and communications technology and, by corollary, global interdependence deepens. In this context, the concept “global governance” as a new framework for regulating international relations is becoming increasingly significant and is starting to generate animated debates.
All of the aforementioned factors will continue to pose challenges to Korea as it conducts its diplomacy, and for Korean diplomacy to be carried out in a way that sufficiently reflects national interests, the Korean government will need to make accurate projections about how the international situation will unfold.
The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) has endeavored to contribute to the Korean governments formulation of foreign policy and help enhance the public’s understanding of the international situation. This volume, “Prospects for International Relations in 2003,” is a part of our continuing endeavors.
This research work is a product of voluminous studies IFANS has conducted by region and function. In order to correctly forecast the trend of changes in the international arena, IFANS has continued to make efforts on diverse fronts, to include hosting and participating in international academic conferences and seminars and conducting on-site surveys.
This booklet is composed of three chapters, each chapter respectively providing a tour d’horizon of the international political and economic situation and detailed studies of the situations in major powers and regions and in East Asia and on the Korean peninsula. Each chapter is broken down into sub- chapters of analyses and assessments. The second chapter, or the situations in major powers and regions, has been compiled with a view to helping foreign policy formulation by working- level officers in the diplomatic sector. It projects these countries’ and regions’ domestic/internal situations and foreign relations and forecasts how they will approach the issues surrounding the Korean peninsula.
I am grateful to the research staff who have contributed to the compilation of this research booklet. My special thanks goes
to Professor Kim Tae-hyo and researcher Park Kun-young who were in charge of editing this volume. IFANS will supplement or otherwise update this booklet in the future so that it can be used as a reference for formulating Korea’s foreign policies through a correct understanding of its external environment.
Shin Sung-oh
Chancellor, IFANS
February 2003
CONTENTS
I. Prospects for International Political and Economic Situation
1. Accelerated Realignment into US-Centered Global Order 5
2. Uncertainties of World Economy 8
3. Parallel Development of Globalization and Regionalism 12
4. Rising Importance of New Diplomacy Issues 17
5. Search for System to Manage New Order 20
II. Outlook on Situations in Major Powers and Regions
1. The United States 23
2. Japan 32
3. China 37
4. Russia 45
5. Europe 52
III. Prospects for Security Situations in East Asia and on the Korean Peninsula
1. Prospects for East Asia Situation 59
2. North Korean Situation 69
3. South-North Korea Relations 76
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