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Prospects for International Relations in 2002
THE INSTITUTE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND NATIONAL SECURITY
PREFACE
Did “September 11” mark the end of the post-Cold War era? The large-scale terror attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon exposed U.S. vulnerabilities to the outside world and triggered a fundamental reorientation of U.S. foreign policy. The early victory of the United States in the Afghan war also exposed the world ironically to the real nature of U.S. power.
The Bush administration, which has called for peace through power and taken a unilateralist position on international issues under the leitmotif “American internationalism,” will focus on multilateral cooperation through the United Nations or regional organizations as a way of complementing its unilateralism. However, while cooperation via multilateral organizations is a good way to build the ground for anti-terror activities, it can drag down the efficiency, and in this regard, Washington’s multilateral cooperation efforts will face a certain limit.
In this light, a complex political dynamic is unfolding in Northeast Asia: the United States and Japan are strengthening their alliance; Russia and China are supporting the U.S.-led war on terror, while alarming the danger of U.S. unilateralism.
The security environment on the Korean peninsula is also likely to be reshaped. The United States, which is alert to a possible round of WMD terror, is demanding that North Korea, considered to be one of the possessors of WMDs, give up these weapons. North Korea-U.S. relations could make progress if North Korea takes a step forward from its position on missile development and export and shows a cooperative attitude to the nuclear transparency issue, which is a source of concern for the Bush administration.
To determine in which direction South Korea’s foreign policies should be promoted amid changes at home and abroad, a correct estimate of how international situations would unfold in the days ahead is vitally needed. Accordingly, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security has published Prospects of International Relations in 2002.
I am grateful to the research staff who participated in the preparation of this research booklet. My gratitude goes especially to Professor Kim Sung-han and Researchers Choi Hyean-ok and Park Kun-young who were in charge of editing this volume. IFANS will supplement or otherwise update this booklet in the future so that it can be used as a reference for preparing Korea’s foreign policies through the correct understanding of its external environment.
CONTENTS
I. Prospects for International Political and Economic Situation
1. Rise of International Order against Terrorism 5
2. Slowdown of World Economy 11
II. Outlook on Situation in Four Major Powers and East Asian Region
1. The United States 19
2. Japan 25
3. China 30
4. Russia 36
III. Prospects for Security Situation in East Asia and on Korean Peninsula
1. Prospects for East Asia Situation 45
2. North Korean Situation 49
3. South-North Korea Relations 53
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