Prospects for International Relations in 2006 ( http://opendata.mofa.go.kr/mofapub/resource/Publication/10449 ) at Linked Data

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  • Prospects for International Relations in 2006
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  • Prospects for International Relations in 2006
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  • Prospects for International Relations in 2006
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  • Prospects for
    International Relations in 2006
    THE INSTITUTE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
    AND NATIONAL SECURITY
    Copyright???? 2006
    Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security
    Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade
    Nambusunhwanno 2572, Socho-Gu, Seoul 137-863, Korea
    Printed by Hancom Printing.
    Publication Date: March 2006
    PREFACE
    ooking back on the international situation of 2005, we are reminded
    that in May the 7th NPT Review Conference ended without any
    substantive results and there was little progress made toward the
    much-touted UN reforms. Within the broader framework of cooperation
    between nations it is obvious that the influence of powerful countries is
    growing and the international order is being shaped around national
    interests being pursued in a “great game” that is intensifying competition
    and containment in international politics. Such developments seem to be
    particularly evident in Northeast and Central Asia.
    With the U.S. military action taken against Iraq in 2003, the situation in
    the Middle East continues to be unstable and with the London terrorist
    attacks and riots in France, international terrorism as well as ethnic and
    religious conflict are becoming both more diversified and region specific.
    Furthermore, natural threats to large populations such as avian flu,
    contagious diseases, typhoons and earthquakes are replacing military
    conflict as a new major threat to human security in the 21st century.
    In Northeast Asia the multilateral six-party talks have been in place to
    work out a resolution to the North Korean nuclear problem. The six-party
    format adheres to the principle of a peaceful resolution to the nuclear issue
    and has opened the way to a greater role for South Korean diplomatic
    efforts. A nearly one-year lull in inter-Korean relations has come to an end
    with renewed dialogue, exchanges and cooperation now being actively
    pursued between the two countries. Other positive cooperative efforts
    among countries in the region were seen in the inauguration of the first
    East Asia Summit (EAS) in late 2005. On the other hand, however, sources
    of conflict still exist. Human rights issues and suspected illegal activities
    are a continuing bone of contention between the United States and North
    L
    Korea and are likely to have a negative impact on the six-party process in
    the near future. The recent flare up of nationalism in Asia is also expected
    to negatively impact cooperation in the region in 2006.
    The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) has
    endeavored to contribute to the government’s foreign policy–making process by
    more promptly and accurately gauging and forecasting changes in international
    relations and at the same time enhance the general public’s understanding of
    international affairs; the publication of Prospects for International Relations in
    2006 is one tangible result of such efforts.
    I would like to extend my gratitude to all the research staff who have taken
    part in the drafting of this research document. My special note of appreciation
    goes to Professor Lee Seo-hang, dean of research, and research assistant Hwang
    Sun-hee, who were in charge of editing this volume, for their strenuous efforts.
    The IFANS hopes that this publication serves as a useful reference material
    for shaping Korea’s foreign policy.
    Cho Jung-pyo
    Chancellor, IFANS
    March 2006
    CONTENTS
    1. International Politics···························································· 1
    1.1 Continued Uncertainty from the Spread of
    Terrorism/Violence and Remaining Nuclear Problems ·············1
    1.1.1 Regionalization and Deepening of International
    Terrorism/Violence···································································1
    1.1.2 Negative Repercussions of Delayed Iran Nuclear
    Negotiations ·············································································2
    1.2 Proliferation of Unconventional Security Threats and
    the “Securitization” of Natural Disasters····································3
    1.2.1 Proliferation of “21st Century Vintage” Unconventional
    Security Threats ·······································································3
    1.2.2 Securitization of National Disasters········································4
    1.3 Strategic Emergence of India and Central Asia and
    the Superpowers ············································································5
    1.3.1 Rise of India and Central Asia’s Strategic Importance ···········5
    1.3.2 The Start of Great Games among the Superpowers ················6
    1.4 UN Reforms in Deadlock ······························································7
    1.4.1 Continued Difficulty for the Security Council and
    the Secretariat Reform ··························································7
    1.4.2 Secretary-General Election Campaign Begins························8
    2. International Economy························································ 9
    2.1 Continuation of Overall Stable Growth·······································9
    2.1.1 Improved Adaptability of the International Economy to
    Risk Factors·············································································9
    2.1.2 Slow Economic Recovery of Developed Countries ·················9
    2.1.3 Continued High Growth Momentum of
    New Rising Countries and Developing Countries·················11
    2.2 Latent Factors Limiting Growth················································12
    2.2.1 Short-term Economic Imbalance between
    the United States and East Asian Countries ··························12
    2.2.2 Possibility of Continued High Oil Prices ······························13
    2.2.3 Remaining Non-Economic Uncertainties ······························14
    2.3 Growth of China and India’s Economic and Influence············14
    2.3.1 Rapid Rise of China and India’s Esteem in
    the World Economy·······························································14
    2.3.2 Nations Intensifying Efforts to Access China and India········15
    2.4 Difficulties in the Advance of Multilateralism and
    the Proliferation of Regionalism ················································16
    2.4.1 Expected Difficulty in DDA Negotiations······························16
    2.4.2 Proliferation of Regionalism ·················································17
    3. Northeast Asia and Regional Cooperation ··················· 19
    3.1 Intensification of Strategic Cross-check and Competitive
    Relationships between U.S.-Japan and China-Russia ·············19
    3.2 Intensification of Conflicts over History-Territorial
    Disputes and National Tendencies·············································21
    3.3 Intensified Diplomacy and Competition for Resources ···········22
    3.4 Continuation of Mediation Phase for Resolving
    the North Korean Nuclear Problem···········································23
    3.5 Expansion of Regional Cooperation Scope to Cope with
    Unconventional Security Threats···············································25
    4. The Korean Peninsula and Inter-Korean Relations··· 27
    4.1 Strengthening Internal Solidarity in North Korea ···················27
    4.1.1 The Military-First Policy Era and Strengthening Solidarity·······27
    4.1.2 Continued Pursuit of the July 1st Economic Management
    Improvement Measures and Mitigating Adverse Effects ·······28
    4.1.3 Solving the Food Problem and Strengthening
    Social Control········································································29
    4.2 Continuation of North Korea’s Selective Strategy toward
    South Korea·················································································30
    4.2.1 Priority of Economic Cooperation with South Korea ···········30
    4.2.2 Continued Emphasis on National Cooperation·····················32
    4.3 Imbalance in Inter-Korean Relations ········································32
    4.3.1 Continuation of Non-Linear Development ····························32
    4.3.2 Increasing South Korea’s Role···············································33
    4.3.3 Expanding Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation··················34
    4.3.4 Potential for the Success of the Kaeseong Industrial
    Complex·················································································36
    4.3.5 Social/Cultural Exchange and Cooperation and
    Changes in Humanitarian Assistance····································37
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  • IFANS Forecast
  • 주요국제문제분석
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  • 2006
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