| bibo:abstract |
North Korea’s South Korea Strategy and
ROK’s North Korea Policy
Ryu, Suk Ryul
Professor, IFANS
Abstract
The main driving force behind North Korea’s recent change was actually the pursuit of economic benefits aimed at strengthening its system. Under the unfavorable circumstances both domestically and internationally, North Korea’s South Korea strategy focus shifted from its past adventuristic line seeking “a revolution in South Korea” to that of defending the system for survival. This change in Pyongyang’s South Korea strategy does not mean, however, that it has completely abandoned the strategic goal of achieving the revolution through a non-peaceful method once favorable conditions are created for the revolution. In other words, the weapons of mass destruction under North Korea’s possession—nuclear weapons, missiles, and rocket artillery—are for defending its system, but we must not overlook the fact that they can be used, if necessary, as a means for the North to achieve its revolution.
There are various factors that determine Pyongyang’s South Korea strategy. To put it briefly, they are North Korea’s domestic factors, the international environment, and the South Korean situation. North Korea’s internal factors can be broken down into Kim Jong-il’s perception of South Korea, Pyongyang’s political ideologies and system, and economic and military capabilities. The international environment comprises North Korea’s relations with the United States and Japan and with China and Russia, as well as the expansion of its overall diplomatic capacity. The South Korean situation, including the new South Korean administration’s North Korea policy, South Korea’s political and economic situation, and South Koreans’ perception of the North, could also be a significant determining factor for Pyongyang’s South Korea strategy.
The most important of all factors determining Pyongyang’s South Korea strategy are Kim Jong-il’s perception of the South and the South Korean government’s and Washington’s North Korea policies. Pyongyang will continue to conduct its existing South Korea strategy for regime survival, and we will not be able to anticipate North-South coexistence or Korean peninsular peace, which will eventually threaten the North Korean system. Our future response would have to be vigilantly watching any changes in the strategy determining factors in order to correctly detect any shifts in North Korea’s South Korea strategy.
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