외교안보연구소 발간자료

US Preemptive Deterrence Plan and Prospects of Iraq Attack

US Preemptive Deterrence Plan and Prospects of Iraq Attack

US Preemptive Deterrence Plan and Prospects of Iraq Attack

이라크

북한

대한민국

미국

US Preemptive Deterrence Plan 
and Prospects of Iraq Attack

Kim, Tae-hyo
Professor, IFANS

Abstract
By including Iraq as both a main force of an “axis of evil” and a key target of the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), Washington has shown fundamental skepticism and hostility toward Iraq’s intentions for possessing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and biological and chemical weapons. The United States is also focused on blocking these weapons from being used in terrorist activities. Judging from the overall recent trends, the United States will continue to step up its readiness posture for an attack against Iraq while focusing on paving the road diplomatically and militarily to depose Saddam Hussein. Due to a lack of convincing reasons, domestic media’s wait-and-see attitude, and international society’s opposition, however, the prospects for the United States to press ahead with an attack against Iraq appear dim. 
South Korea should be prepared for a possible US request for military and/or financial contributions in case Washington does go forward with an attack against Iraq. South Korea should support the United States from the angle of participating in the international call of duty called campaign against WMD and terrorism, but it must also take a circumspect approach so that its support to the United States does not unnecessarily antagonize Middle Eastern countries. In the case of North Korea, the method of peaceful resolution via negotiations is still valid for rectifying its WMD and missile issues. It is thus necessary for South Korea to advance negotiations with North Korea and induce Pyongyang to voluntarily renounce its WMD programs before Washington considers a preemptive attack, which would accompany high risks. This would, of course, have to be preceded by close ROK-US cooperation.

워싱턴

평양

Past Publications

오럴히스토리총서

사담 후세인

아시아

NPR

Nuclear Posture Review

Professor

Weapons of Mass Destruction

WMD

핵태세검토보고서(NPR)

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Kim Tae-hyo

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ENG