| bibo:abstract |
Political and Security Implications of the Asian Financial Crisis
for the Korean Peninsula
저 자 명 : Scott Snyder
날 짜 : 1999.06
Introduction
The Asian financial crisis has had a dramatic impact on the prosperity and livelihood of
millions of people in Asia, and its reach has gradually extended across the globe.
Previously at the vanguard of economic growth and opportunity, the rapidly
industrializing "dragons" of Asia have watched "a few glitches in the road" transform
themselves into "the biggest financial challenge facing the world in a half century" in
the course of a little less than a year. (Re.1) As the first region-wide economic
downtown following over three decades of Asian growth, the financial crisis has
reshaped the context for discussions of Asian political and security relations and has
had a decisive impact on politics and security itself in countries facing the most severe
fallout from the crisis. The cushion of economic prosperity is no longer such an
effective buffer against potential security conflicts as it had been before the crisis; in
fact, conditions of prolonged economic contraction may become a source both of
internal instability and of tension between countries who must protect their share of a
shrinking economic pie. (Re.2)
(Remark 1) Paul Blustein, "President Upbeat About Asian Economic Woes; On Summit's
Eve, Clinton Plays Down Bailouts for Thailand, Indonesia, S. Korea," Washington Post,
November 24, 1997, p. A01, President Bill Clinton, "The Global Economy," Council on
Foreign Relations, New York, September 14, 1998. Transcript from Lexis-Nexis.
(Remark 2) There are counter-arguments to the conventional wisdom that the Asian
financial crisis has had a negative political and security impact in the region up to now,
but these are arguments that apply primarily to the short-term impact of the crisis. See
Stephan Haggard, "Security Implications of the Asian Economic Crisis: A Contrarian
View" and Tsutomu Kikuchi, "The Asian Economic Crisis: Its Implications for Security
Cooperation in Northeast Asia," papers presented at the Fourth Meeting of the CSCAP North Pacific Working Group, November 8-10, 1998, Beijing. I agree with some of
these arguments about short-term impact of the crisis, but I also believe that the
prolonged effects of economic weakness have a negative impact that may lead to the
heightened possibility that there may be an outbreak of conflict.
The first priority in analyzing the crisis has been to seek economic solutions to the
crisis that has enveloped the region, and a great deal of effort and ink has been spilled
in an attempt to come to terms with the immediate economic challenges being faced.
(Re.3) However, over the course of time the effects of many of the economic issues
being confronted may be transformed into political and security issues that may also
present themselves as crises simultaneous with the effort to resolve the current
economic crisis.
(Remark 3) For instance, Professor Roubini's Asian economic crisis homepage
(http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/asia/AsiaHomepage.html) is a wide-ranging source
for particular aspects of the economist debate over the Asian financial crisis.
How will already beleaguered governments respond to new political and security
challenges in the context of economic crisis? Could potential simultaneous economic
and security crises overwhelm current structures of governance? How are economic
crisis and political reforms intertwined with each other, and to what extent are political
transitions required to carry out economic reform? How will national leadership of the
nation-state fare in the context of economic challenges that have required the
surrender of an unprecedented degree of outside sovereignty to new constituencies of
non-registered voters: the media and the markets? What are the implications for
ongoing security conflicts such as the confrontation on the Korean peninsula? As one
considers these questions, it is easy to recognize that effects of the Asian financial
crisis extend beyond economics to influence popular views toward governance and
legitimacy of leaders on a national level and toward globalization and its influences on
an international level. This paper will briefly review the range of analytical responses to
the Asian financial crisis, discuss the mixed impact of the crisis on views of
globalization, and will assess the influence of the financial crisis on the politics and
security of the Korean peninsula.
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