| bibo:abstract |
The Bush Administration and Prospects of
U.S.-Russia Relations
Ko Jae-nam
Professor, IFANS
Abstract
Following the inauguration of the Bush administration, U.S.-Russian relations are expected to experience more conflict than cooperation given the two nations' differing views on key diplomatic and security issues, such as: (1) the establishment of the National Missile Defense (NMD) system and the amendment or abolishment of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty; (2) the expansion of NATO; (3) the strengthening of the UN's role; and, (4) sales of advanced Russian weaponry to Iran. At the same time, however, there is a greater possibility that the two governments will seek cooperation based on realistic and practical foreign policy.
The U.S. missile defense program will, for a considerable period of time, be perceived as a threat aimed more at China than Russia. Therefore, if the U.S. offers a measure of compromise proposals, Russia is likely to accept them. Compromise proposals the U.S. government might extend are: (1) joint development of technology for establishing the NMD system; (2) significant write-offs of Russia's foreign debts; (3) disapproval of the three Baltic countries' early membership in NATO; (4) recognition of Russia's exclusive influence over former USSR territory; and; (5) expansion of substantive bilateral economic cooperation. Meanwhile, Russia's possible countermeasures to the Bush administration's NMD program are: (1) allowing the emplacement of 100 anti-ballistic missiles in certain areas, within permissible limits of the ABM treaty (refer to Article III); (2) the strengthening of anti-American solidarity with China and the EU; (3) forward deployment of nuclear weapons in areas adjacent to Europe and Alaska; (4) proliferation, tacit approval, or promotion of weapons of mass destruction; (5) abrogation of disarmament treaties such as START-II; (6) efforts to develop and possibly deploy counteractive weaponry, such as the multi-warhead missile Topol-M; (7) acceleration of SDI technology development; and, (8) the strengthening of military and economic control over former Soviet areas.
However, such proposals and countermeasures by the U.S. and Russia will result in a security dilemma, and be more disadvantageous to the latter. Therefore, the Russian government prefers the above-mentioned proposals, in order to achieve a compromise with the U.S. As a result, it is Russia's countermeasures that will exert the major influence over the future of U.S.-Russian relations.
Ⅰ. The Bush Administration's Views on Russia and the Direction of its Policies
The Bush Administration's Views on Russia
There is no doubt that the Bush Administration's reflections on Russia, including an evaluation of the Clinton administration's past policy on Russia, will certainly influence America's policy towards Russia.
During the presidential campaign, Mr. Bush and his administrative staff claimed that the Clinton Administration's policy on Russia was a failure. They pointed out that the increase in corruption, organized crime, oligarchy, and misuse of financial aid from the IMF and other international organizations were all evidence of that failure. They also argued that the failure increased Russia's anti-Americanism and diminished the American people's belief in the Russian government's ability to act effectively.
The Bush administration specifically criticized frequent human rights abuses by the Russian government, citing its policy on Chechnya, the establishment of the Information Security Doctrine and the enactment of the Religion Registration Act in 1997 as examples of the suppression of freedom of speech and religion, as well as other non-democratic political acts.
However, Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice called Russia “a Great Power,” one with both positive and negative implications for America's domestic and international interests. They emphasized Russia's abundant natural resources and preeminence in Eurasia, as well as its powerful nuclear capability. Furthermore, they stated that they would proceed with negotiations with Russia on nuclear arms reduction, on the establishment of a missile defense system, on halting the spread of weapons of mass destruction and on other international issues.
The Direction of the Bush Administration's Policy towards Russia
During the presidential campaign, the Bush Administration's staff made it clear that they would depend on close foreign policy and security cooperation with America's allies (rather than on the UN) to solve problems involving threats to international peace. Thus, America's neglect of the UN and preference for its allies will cause a comparative decrease in the importance of relations between the US and Russia.
The establishment of the missile-defense system and nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction are the highest-priority tasks related to America's foreign and security policies. Paradoxically, these two goals will increase the importance of America's security cooperation with Russia. Practically speaking, the Bush Administration will establish the NMD system, which has emerged as an urgent issue between the US and Russia, and at the same time will positively explore foreign and security relations with Russia for the modification of the ABM Treaty . Also, the Bush Administration will cooperate with Russia on foreign relations and security issues to solve such international problems as the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, START III negotiations for the joint reduction of nuclear weapons, international terrorism, expansion of NATO and reform of the UN.
The Bush Administration, which has had a negative opinion of Russia's past political and economic, will provide Russia with conditional economic support and cooperation. Furthermore, as the Putin Administration pursues policies to improve relations with China and the EU in order to block the establishment the NMD system, the Bush Administration will pursue a policy to weaken Russia's improvement of relations with those two entities.
Ⅱ. Russia's Opinion of the Bush Administration and the Direction of its Policies
Russia's Opinion of the Bush Administration
Russia has both positive and negative opinions of the Bush Administration. For instance, some high officials of the Putin Administration welcome the inauguration of the Bush Administration, believing that Russia will gain advantages in foreign policy and security without remaining under the sway of America's national interests. During a TV interview, Mr. Putin said "Russia has been always looking for a common language with the Republican Administration of the US,”and he predicted that Russia could maintain a good relationship with the US. Also, considering the probability that the Bush Administration will decrease the US role as an international police force and focus more than the previous administration on solving domestic problems and national security, some expect that the Bush Administration will have more balanced and conservative policies by intervening in Russia's domestic affairs to a far lesser degree than its predecessor.
Meanwhile, some of Russia's high-ranking officials predict that the relations between the Bush Administration and Russia will deteriorate. They point out that the establishment of the NMD/TMD system will be a main cause of that deterioration. They also believe that the effort to establish the TMD system will considerably damage US-China relations even if the Bush Administration postpones the establishment of the NMD system. Russia, they say, will be in a difficult position in such a conflict between the US and China, and forced to make a difficult decision. Some specialists have expressed skepticism towards the optimistic views of the Bush Administration by officials in the Putin Administration and have predicted that conflict and confrontation between the presidents of the US and Russia, both of whom want to carry out strong foreign policies, will increase if the Bush Administration carries out the NMD plan.
Direction of the Putin Administration's Policies towards the US
According to several selected foreign policy and security documents adopted last year, the Putin Administration considers that America's security-related foreign policy, based on the use of America's military and economic strength for the establishment of international order, will be a serious threat to Russia's national interest. Consequently, Russia has been trying to impede this.
As a result, President Putin has been positively strengthening Russia's relations with China, Japan and India as well as with the EU countries, in order to expand and strengthen a balance of power against the US. He has even gone as far as to normalize and strengthen diplomatic relations with countries that are hostile to America, such as North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Iraq.
By expediting the implementation of the START II treaty, which was ratified by the State Duma in April last year, the Putin Administration is poised to continue START III talks with America, which aim to drastically reduce nuclear weapons (even to a point below 1,500 units). Also, the Putin Administration will extend its cooperation with the US in an effort to secure early ratification of America's CTBT and to help reduce proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The Putin Administration will strengthen relations with the US to prevent the 14 former members of the Soviet Republics from joining NATO.
The Putin Administration recognizes that both economic development and economic growth will be impossible without economic cooperation with the United States and other countries, and without joining the WTO and other international economic and financial institutions. Therefore, the Putin Administration will push internal economic reform and try to solve the Chechen problem, while strengthening its foreign relations in the fields of economics and trade. To achieve that, it must expand economic cooperation with the US and other Western countries.
Ⅲ. The Bush Administration's Policies on Major Issues and the Putin Administration's Countermeasures
Establishment of the NMD/TMD System and the ABM Treaty
In order to effectively respond to changes in the strategic environment, such as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and security threats to the US by "rogue states", the Bush Administration will implement the NMD/TMD system as soon as possible. Also, the Bush administration believes that the ABM Treaty should be amended as it is not suited for the changes that have occurred in the strategic environment in the post cold-war period and limits underwater missile tests and the use of satellites.
Meanwhile, the Putin administration strongly opposes the establishment of the NMD/TMD system. It maintains that the two systems are in violation of the ABM Treaty and that they are designed to maintain the US hegemony and destabilize the international strategic environment by stimulating a new arms race. It also asserts that Russia will take all diplomatic and military counter-measures if America tries to abrogate the ABM Treaty and establish the NMD/TMD system over Russia's objections.
Actually, Russia seeks direct talks with America, to delay the establishment of the NMD/TMD system, so that it can implement such counter-measures as: the strengthening of relations with China and EU countries that oppose the NMD/TMD; the establishment of a cooperative missile defense system with the EU; postponing military reforms designed to reduce the number of strategic missile troops and to modernize conventional weapons; mass production and modernization of the Topol-M missile; threats to nullify the START Ⅱ treaty; and, initiating proposals on drastic reductions in nuclear arms.
Extension of NATO and European Countries’Self Defense
The Bush Administration believes not only in increasing NATO's defensive power, but also that its role and function should be strengthened and extended to maintain peace and stability in Eurasian countries, as well as America's influence in these areas. Secretary of State Colin Powell argues that the expansion of NATO is not aimed at Russia and that therefore the expansion plan has to be carried out when necessary, without taking Russia's objections seriously. Meanwhile, the Bush Administration opposes the formation of the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) which the EU is interested in establishing to increase its self-defense.
The Putin administration clearly asserts that it cannot allow further extension of NATO. Especially, it cannot allow former Soviet Republics (such as the three Baltic countries) to join NATO, as it feels that this will seriously threaten Russia's national security. It recognizes that even the extension and strengthening of political and military cooperation between the former Soviet Republics and NATO with the use of the NATO-PFP Program (for example, strengthening relations between the GUUAM and NATO) are elements threatening Russia's national security.
Under a basic concrete policy that it will never allow the former Soviet Republics to join NATO, the Putin Administration will allow the expansion of Central and East European Countries while it takes counter-measures against NATO's expansion. That is, it will take other necessary counter-measures by expanding military, security and economic cooperation through the construction of the ESDP and a supply network for energy and electricity with EU countries, strengthening ties with anti-NATO countries like China and India, increasing military and economic pressure on the former Soviet Republics, and the extension of the functions of the OSCE regarding security cooperation in the Eurasian area.
Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Nuclear Weapons
It is a fundamental position of the Bush Administration that it will try its utmost to reduce nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. For this, it will cooperate with Russia and other major countries and make use of relevant international organizations. Nevertheless, when necessary, it will also take steps independently towards securing arms reductions. It also objects to the ratification of the CTBT because it believes that it cannot verify the nuclear arms tests of the countries concerned, although it has stated that it would respect the existing treaty regarding bans on nuclear tests.
While the Putin Administration urges the ratification of the CTBT by the US Senate, it says that it can reduce more nuclear weapons and launch pads for START III than were previously expected. However, according to an article of ratification of the START Ⅱ treaty, ratification will be nullified if America modifies or abrogates the ABM Treaty. Therefore, whether or not the American ABM Treaty is modified or nullified will greatly effect the Putin Administration's reduction policy regarding nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. Also, despite strong objections by America, the Putin Administration will continue to promote its influence and economic interests in Middle Eastern countries such as Iran and Iraq. They will do this by asserting that selling high-tech conventional weapons and other materials and technologies related to the construction of nuclear reactors to these countries is not related to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Extension of the Function of the UN and Its Peace-keeping Activities
The Bush Administration says that it will never put US armed forces under the command of the UN joint military commander, although it will support the UN's arms inspection, peace-keeping and humanitarian activities.
Although the US agrees to the reorganization of the UN Security Council, it opposes any expansion of the role of the Council. The Bush Administration will provide guidelines for the involvement of US armed forces before they participate in peace-keeping activities, and it further asserts that the US forces will participate the peace-keeping activities only after the purpose, strategy for achieving the goals, possibility of success and an acceptable command system are clearly established and secured. In other words, the US will follow a policy of selective involvement, with full consideration given to the national interests of the US.
The Putin Administration states that the UN should remain a central institution in handling international affairs in the 21st century and objects to any attempt to reduce the role of the UN or the Security Council. On the contrary, it believes that the role of the UN should be strengthened. According to Russia, this calls for observance of the basic principles of the UN Charter, an increase in the power of the UN to solve international conflicts and crises, and the maintaining of the status of the permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Also, it further argues that reforms of UN organizations should be accomplished towards the creation of a mechanism that can promptly respond to changing international situations. The Putin Administration also says that it thinks peace-keeping activities are an effective means for solving military conflicts, and that it will positively participate in them, within the UN charter. However, criticizing NATO's air attack on Yugoslavia, Russia advocates strengthening laws that state that peace-keeping activities should strictly comply with the UN Charter.
Russia's Domestic Problems (including the Chechen Incident)
As mentioned above, the Bush Administration claimed that the Clinton Administration's policy toward Russia was a failure. It also says that the Putin Administration has the responsibility for improving the negative aspects of economic reform, and that economic cooperation between Russia and the US and other countries will be enhanced only after Russia carries out proper measures to curb widespread corruption and mishandling of international financial aids.
The US is seriously concerned about the deaths, casualties and atrocities evident during Russia's military campaign in the Chechen Republic and hopes that the problems related to the Chechen Republic can be solved politically. It further asserts that international laws such as the Geneva Convention and other regulations related to international laws under the UN Charter and the OSCE should be accepted by the Russians, to allow humanitarian support organizations to have access to refugees of the conflict.
Meanwhile, the Putin Administration argues that it cannot allow any involvement by international organizations and countries in the Chechen Republic, as this is Russia's domestic problem; it is trying to stabilize the situation there under a pro-Moscow government as soon as possible. Also, it believes that the negative effects of the transition of power from Yeltsin to Putin are due to the weakness of federal power in Russia and damage to the constitution inflicted by the previous administration. The Putin administration maintains that it is doing what it can to re-establish strong federal power and order.
Ⅳ. Prospects of US-Russian Relations
Preference for Cooperation over Confrontation and Conflict
A detailed Russian policy for the Bush Administration will materialize several months from now, when decisions have been made related to the establishment of the NMD, as well as overall foreign policy and security policy related to allies and major EU countries. And because of this reason, it is not easy at this time for anyone to predict the future of US-Russia relations. Although it is likely that there will be more conflict and confrontation than cooperation in the future, due to their different ideas about security and military affairs, there will be more cooperation than conflict and confrontation between the two countries, due to the fundamentally realistic and practical foreign policies of the two countries.
Actually, the Putin Administration recognizes that Russia cannot solve its economic crisis or elevate its status in the international community without friendly and cooperative relations with the US, and it is probable that the two powers will look for a compromise in their relations as long as America's security policies and military policies do not seriously threaten Russia's security interests. As the Bush Administration also recognizes that international peace and stability are not possible without cooperation with Russia and understands that segregating Russia from China and EU is helpful for America's global strategy, it will prefer cooperation and compromise to confrontation with Russia.
Increased Confrontation over Military and Security Affairs and the Search for Compromise
Despite objections by Russia, the Bush Administration will proceed to establish the NMD/TMD and will modify or abrogate the ABM Treaty for this purpose. As a result, the relationship between the two countries will greatly deteriorate if they cannot come to a compromise. However, America's establishment of NMD will appear to be more threatening to China than Russia in the coming years. Therefore, it is likely that Russia will compromise if the US presents Russia some attractive proposals.
The compromise the Bush Administration may now offer Russia could include the following: sharing of technology for the establishment of the NMD System, writing-off of a considerable amount of Russia's debt, rejecting the three Baltic countries' efforts to join NATO, recognizing Russia's exclusive influence over the areas of the former Soviet Union, and significantly extending economic cooperation. In response to the establishment of the NMD system by the Bush Administration, Russia could allow 100 units of NMD within the specific areas allocated under the ABM Treaty (refer to article 3) and the strengthening of an anti-American coalition with China and the EU. She may also launch the deployment of nuclear arms to Europe and areas near Alaska, turn a blind eye to or even encourage the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and abrogate the START II and other arms reduction treaties. Other possible responses could include developing corresponding weapons, such as Topol-M, and widening their deployment, a
ccelerating the development of SDI technology, and strengthening military and economic control over the areas of the Soviet Union.
However, responses and counter-responses between the US and Russia will only put the two countries into a dilemma, yielding more disadvantages for Russia than the US. Therefore, it is probable that the Putin Administration will prefer compromise to the other options indicated above. Consequently, US-Russian relations will come to a conclusion, more effected by Russia's counter-measures than by those of the US.
Extension of Cooperation on the Control of International Terrorism, Space Development, Disarmament of Strategic Weapons and Economic Development
Although there are serious disagreements between the US and Russia in military and security areas, they will both continue to cooperate in the control of international terrorism, space development, disarmament of strategic weapons and economic development. As the Bush Administration understands that Russia's economic development will also contribute to the development of Russian society and democracy, the US will help Russia join the WTO and extend financial support from international financial institutions, if the Putin Administration carries out policies to clean up old evils and strengthen the market economy. Although the establishment of the NMD system is an important point for the Bush Administration, the two countries will continue their cooperation for the reduction of strategic nuclear arms and for the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
|
